CPRT— AI Stock Forecast & Price Targets
Published 6/15/2026 · A free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-powered analysis.
Kronos price forecasts, scored fundamentals & technicals, and a multi-horizon plan.
View the live CPRT price forecast →
Copart is a high-quality, debt-free compounder trading at a 38% drawdown from 52-week highs ($30.75 vs $50.11) after a brutal YTD decline of -21.5%, with the stock now sitting at multi-year support near $30. Fundamentals remain pristine (33% net margins, 17.6% ROE, $3.35B cash, $93M debt, $1B FCF) but growth has decelerated sharply (sales Y/Y TTM just 1.05%), and Kronos forecasts a mean-reversion bounce into the $32-40 range over coming weeks/months that aligns with oversold technicals (RSI 36.9, -20.7% from SMA200).
1-4 week view: ACCUMULATE on weakness. The stock is oversold (RSI 36.9), sitting just above the 52-week low of $29.97, and Kronos 1h/4h forecasts both project a bounce to $32.90-$38.52. Tactical long entry $30.00-$30.75 with a stop just below $29.50 (invalidates the support thesis). First target $33 (resistance), stretch target $34.50. Size at 1/3 of intended position given the dominant downtrend on the daily chart. Invalidation: a weekly close below $29.50.
1-6 month view: Constructive. The fundamental quality (37.5% op margins, $3.35B cash, near-zero debt, 17.6% ROE) is inconsistent with a sub-$31 stock if revenue growth re-accelerates above 5%. Base case: mean-reversion to $38-40 (Kronos 4h/1d targets, also the prior breakdown level), implying ~25-30% upside in 3-6 months. Catalysts: next earnings print (FY26 Q4, expected August), evidence of insurance-claim volume recovery, used-vehicle pricing stabilization. What would change my mind: a third consecutive quarter of <2% revenue growth, or margin compression below 35% operating, which would suggest secular pressure rather than a cyclical pause.
1-3 year view: HOLD-to-BUY with a quality compounder framing. Copart's duopoly position with IAA in US salvage auctions, asset-light digital platform, international optionality (UK/Germany/Brazil/UAE), and zero-debt balance sheet support a 12-15% long-term earnings CAGR if industry volumes normalize. Weekly chart suggests the stock could re-rate back to $44-48 (Kronos weekly forecast 44.10) over 18-24 months. Biggest structural risk: EV adoption changes the salvage mix (lower total-loss frequency, different parts economics), and insurance industry consolidation pressuring auction fees. Secondary risk: persistent low total-loss rates if used-car prices stay elevated.
Copart's business quality is excellent but growth has materially slowed. TTM revenue of $4.64B with Y/Y growth of just 1.05% and EPS Y/Y TTM of 5.61% mark a clear deceleration from the 16% 5-year sales CAGR and 16.7% 5-year EPS CAGR. Margins remain best-in-class: gross margin 47.5%, operating margin 37.5%, net margin 33.5%, ROE 17.6%, ROIC 17.55%. The balance sheet is fortress-grade — $3.35B cash vs $93M total debt (Debt/Eq 0.01), current ratio 7.61, working capital of $4.53B. Cash flow is real: TTM operating cash flow $1.69B, FCF $1.0B, though Q1 FY26 (Jan-31 period) OCF dropped sharply to $127.5M before rebounding to $584M in the April quarter — worth monitoring for working capital volatility. Capital allocation is conservative: no dividend, modest buybacks implied by stable share count near 925.8M. The thesis break is growth: revenue is barely growing while the stock trades on 19x P/E and 18x forward P/E with a PEG of 7.11 — expensive relative to current growth, reasonable if growth re-accelerates.
All four timeframes show a stock that has been brutally derated. On the weekly chart, CPRT has fallen from a $63 peak in 2025 to $30.75, retesting the 2022-2023 base around $27-32 — a 51% drawdown. The daily chart shows a sustained downtrend from $44 in January to $30.75 by mid-June with a capitulation flush in late May/early June. The 1h chart shows a sharp June drop from $34 to a $30.20 low, then basing action. Key technical readings: RSI 36.87 (oversold but not extreme), price -4.33% below SMA20, -6.37% below SMA50, -20.67% below SMA200 — a deeply bearish trend structure. Support is the 52-week low at $29.97 (immediate) and the multi-year $27-28 zone (2022 lows). Resistance is $33 (recent breakdown), $34.50 (June high), then $38-40. The Kronos forecast is uniformly bullish-mean-reverting across all timeframes: 1h projects $32.90, 4h projects $38.52, 1d projects $40.37, and weekly $44.10, with directional accuracy in the backtest (25.7% overall) actually below random — so the forecast magnitude should be discounted, though the directional consensus toward a bounce is notable.
News flow is mixed-to-cautiously-constructive. The most signal-rich items: Simply Wall St (Jun 1) flags the -36% one-year drawdown and asks whether the stock is now mispriced; ChartMill (Jun 3) highlights that CPRT passes Peter Lynch's GARP screen with 20% earnings growth, zero debt, and a PEG of 0.96 — directly contradicting the Finviz PEG of 7.11, suggesting growth assumptions vary widely. Yahoo/StockStory (Jun 9) note CPRT in the context of Q1 business-services winners/losers but don't single it out as a loser. The broader macro backdrop — US-Iran MOU progress, oil prices sinking — is mildly positive for risk assets and indirectly for auto/insurance volumes that drive Copart's salvage auction volumes. Nothing in the news indicates a fundamental break in the business model; the narrative is 'quality compounder in a drawdown,' not 'thesis breaking.' No earnings catalyst is imminent (next print May 21 has passed; results were in line based on Q3 FY26 numbers reported).
- International expansion across UK, Germany, Brazil, UAE, Spain, Finland, Oman, Ireland, Bahrain — diversifies away from US insurance cycle dependence
- Purple Wave acquisition expanding into wholesale construction/agriculture/fleet remarketing — adjacent vertical with similar auction economics
- Copart 360 proprietary imaging tech and IntelliSeller automation — moat-deepening tech that should support pricing power and seller take rates
- BluCar / CashForCars consumer-facing channels expanding direct-from-consumer vehicle sourcing, reducing dependence on insurance carrier volumes
- Powersport vehicle remarketing via live/online auction — new vertical leveraging existing platform infrastructure
- $3.35B cash war chest enables countercyclical M&A — potential to acquire weaker competitors during the current industry downturn
- Revenue growth has collapsed to 1.05% Y/Y TTM from a 16% 5-year CAGR — if this persists, the 19x P/E is unjustified
- EV transition risk: higher repair-vs-total-loss ratios on EVs could structurally shrink salvage auction supply long-term
- Insurance industry pricing pressure: carriers consolidating buyer power, pressuring Copart's auction fees
- Stock is in a clear weekly downtrend with price -20.7% below SMA200 — catching the falling knife if support at $29.97 fails opens path to $27 (2022 lows) or lower
- Kronos model's directional accuracy on CPRT 1d is just 25.7% in backtest (worse than coin-flip), so forecast targets should be discounted
- PEG ratio of 7.11 (Finviz) signals the stock is expensive vs current growth — multiple compression risk if growth doesn't re-accelerate
- Short interest 4.02% with 3.84 days-to-cover — not extreme but indicates institutional skepticism
- Q2 FY26 operating cash flow dropped to $127.5M (vs $438-584M in other quarters) — possible working capital or seasonal pressure worth watching
- Used vehicle prices and total-loss frequency are cyclical drivers outside Copart's control
Get AI analysis on any stock
This is one of hundreds of Kronos AI reports — scored fundamentals & technicals, bull/base/bear price targets, a multi-horizon plan, and continuously-updated forecasts across the market. Create a free account to explore them all.
Create your free account →Already a member? Sign in · Join our Discord