Today’s AI Top Pick: OLLI
7/8/2026 · Undervalued Oversold screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet is the textbook 'oversold value with tape confirmation' setup in this pool. It passes the screen cleanly (fwdPe 13.29, PEG 0.94, RSI 34.83) but the real edge is the multi-timeframe agreement: position_in_21bar_range_pct is 0% on ALL FOUR timeframes (1h, 4h, 1d, 1wk) — you literally cannot buy it lower in the current windows, meaning zero 'chasing' risk. Drawdowns are deep but coherent: -14.3% (1h), -16.18% (4h), -24.18% (1d), -41.01% (1wk), which is exactly what a value_oversold lens wants. Every forecast horizon is positive and the mid/long magnitudes are among the largest in the pool: 1d fc_mid +76.99%/fc_long +55.37%, 4h fc_mid +61.84%/fc_long +56.35%, 1wk fc_mid +41.83%/fc_long +39.12%, and even the 1h near-term is +4.69% short / +31.19% mid. bullish_prob = 1.0 and near_term_bullish = 1.0 — the model has full confidence and the near-term is confirming, not diverging. Compare to BABA, which has an equally strong forecast but sits at pos_in_21bar_range 100% on 1h AND 4h after a 12% pre-earnings pop — you're chasing there, not buying weakness. Fundamentals back it up: ROE 13.78%, operMargin 12.31%, profitMargin 9.13%, salesYoY +16.74%, debtEq just 0.38, analyst recom 1.31 (strong buy), targetUpsidePct +76.7%. This is a debt-light, cash-generative discount retailer trading at a forward multiple in the low teens after a 46.85% one-year drawdown. News flow is supportive, not toxic — Zacks flagged it as a growth-investor overlook, StockStory called it a Q1 earnings outperformer, and there is nothing in the tape resembling a guidance cut, dilution or short-seller report. ORCL is a very close #2 (superior fundamentals: ROE 54%, opMargin 33%) but its 1h short forecast is only +0.99% and it has a broker PT cut hanging over it. OLLI has a cleaner near-term confirmation. Why TODAY vs. waiting: the name is at absolute range lows on every timeframe with RSI ~35, near-term forecast already flipped positive (+4.69% 1h short), and there is no negative catalyst on deck. Waiting for a lower entry means fighting a bullish_prob of 1.0 and a near_term_bullish of 1.0 while risking a fast snap-back off the 21-bar low — exactly what oversold value setups do when the forecast turns.
- Consumer Defensive discount retail comps risk — a soft Q2 SSS print could re-open the 46.85% 1-yr drawdown; earnings gap risk is real given -18.11% 1d recent move
- Institutional ownership at 115.42% and shortFloat 10.6% mean any negative headline can cause a violent air-pocket to the downside
- PEG 0.94 with epsNextY growth of 13.86% priced in — if guidance disappoints, fwdPe 13.29 can re-rate down toward 10x fast
- 1h/4h are at pos_in_21bar_range 0% AND still showing -14% to -16% drawdowns; if -$62 breaks, next real support is meaningfully lower
- Broader tape risk — Trump trade cutoff headlines with Spain and risk-off mood could pressure discretionary/defensive retailers alike, delaying the mean-reversion
| # | Symbol | Verdict | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OLLI | BUY NOW | 9.0 | All 4 TFs at 0% range position, every forecast horizon positive with 1d fc_mid +76.99%, clean fundamentals and no negative news — textbook oversold value. |
| 2 | ORCL | BUY NOW | 8.5 | Best fundamentals in the pool (ROE 54%, opMargin 33%) at fwdPe 12.98, -34% daily drawdown, forecasts positive across all TFs; slight PT-cut headwind keeps it just behind OLLI. |
| 3 | UWMC | BUY NOW | 7.5 | Extreme forecast magnitudes (4h fc_long +155.81%) with bullish_prob 1.0 and near_term 1.0 after -52% weekly drawdown; smaller position due to debtEq 70.65 and thin margins. |
| 4 | BABA | BUY PULLBACK | 7.0 | Fundamentals strong (fwdPe 11.05, PEG 0.26) and forecasts big, but 1h/4h at pos 100% after a 12% pre-earnings pop — wait for a pullback to $100-102 rather than chase. |
| 5 | ASO | BUY NOW | 6.5 | fwdPe 6.52, PEG 0.79, pos 0% on 1h/4h/1d/1wk, all forecast horizons positive, bullish_prob 1.0 — a smaller-cap OLLI analog. |
| 6 | CRGY | BUY PULLBACK | 6.0 | Positive SeekingAlpha FCF thesis and bullish_prob 1.0, but 1h at pos 100% and 4h fc horizons only marginally positive — better entry on a dip toward $9. |
| 7 | ICL | BUY PULLBACK | 5.5 | bullish_prob 0.8 with 1d/1wk forecasts positive (+13.6%/+17.67% mid) but recom 3.2 is lukewarm and 1h fc is negative — small starter only. |
| 8 | LVS | WAIT | 5.0 | Decent 4h/1d forecasts (fc_mid +24.84%/+15.59%) but 1wk fc turns negative and Macquarie just cut PT to $66 — no urgency. |
| 9 | FLOC | WAIT | 4.5 | Positive short/mid forecasts on 1h/1d but bullish_prob is null and 1wk forecasts are all 0 — signal quality too thin. |
| 10 | AA | WAIT | 4.0 | 1h fc_mid +50.99% is attractive but 1d fc_long -12.25% and 1wk fc_mid -20.6% show deteriorating longer TFs; SeekingAlpha explicitly says 'not the time to buy the dip.' |
| 11 | CMC | WAIT | 4.0 | Solid fundamentals but 1wk fc_mid -18.48% / fc_long -15.8% and bullish_prob only 0.4 — deteriorating tape despite the value setup. |
| 12 | LPL | WAIT | 4.0 | bullish_prob 1.0 and OLED certification tailwind, but roe -0.77, profitMargin negative and 1h near-term_bullish only 0.2. |
| 13 | HCC | WAIT | 3.5 | Near-term bullish 1.0 but 1d fc_long -17.87% and 1wk fc_mid -38.5% collapse the longer-term thesis; UBS just cut PT. |
| 14 | MLI | WAIT | 3.5 | RSI 25 extreme oversold and 1wk fc_mid +32%, but bullish_prob 0.0 and 1d fc_long -7% — mixed signal. |
| 15 | WFRD | WAIT | 3.5 | PEG 1.5 at the ceiling, 1wk fc_long -30.96%, Citi cut PT — thesis fading. |
| 16 | VIST | AVOID | 3.0 | Great margins (opMargin 33.65%) but 1d fc_long -18.61% and 1wk fc_mid -46.95% — forecast tape is collapsing. |
| 17 | HAL | AVOID | 3.0 | 1d and 1wk forecasts all negative (fc_mid -14.24% / -15.02%), bullish_prob 0.0 — value trap look. |
| 18 | NE | AVOID | 3.0 | 1d fc_mid -10.2%, 1wk fc_long -28.98%; SeekingAlpha calls it 'prolonged $70 oil environment' — no urgency. |
| 19 | SLB | AVOID | 3.0 | PEG 1.5, 1d fc_mid -13.36%, 1wk fc_mid -14.74%, bullish_prob 0.2 — oil-services drag. |
| 20 | HAS | AVOID | 3.0 | roe -24.49%, debtEq 5.97; RSI 26.73 oversold but fundamental_score just 2.5 — not the right value name. |
| 21 | DBI | AVOID | 2.5 | pe 28.77, debtEq 4.37, profitMargin 0.35% — passes the screen on fwdPe only; broken business. |
| 22 | OBE | AVOID | 2.5 | Guidance raise is positive, but bullish_prob 0.0 and salesYoY -34.47%; forecast tape lukewarm. |
| 23 | ECVT | AVOID | 2.5 | 1d fc_long -20.63%, 1wk fc_mid -23.08%, bullish_prob 0.0 — negative forecast tape. |
| 24 | RIO | AVOID | 2.5 | bullish_prob 0.0, near_term 0 (implied), targetUpsidePct only 16.4% — no edge here. |
| 25 | ITRN | AVOID | 2.0 | 1d fc_short -25.92%, 1wk fc_mid -50.91%, bullish_prob 0.0 — model screams sell. |
| 26 | ARW | AVOID | 2.0 | 1d fc_short -29.91% / fc_long -30.16%, recom 3.0, bullish_prob 0.0 — deteriorating tape. |
| 27 | SNX | AVOID | 2.0 | 1wk fc_short -41.32% / fc_long -46.88% after +45% weekly move — reversion risk to the downside dominates. |
| 28 | SKM | AVOID | 2.0 | pe 51.04, bullish_prob 0.0, 1wk fc_mid -28.48% — passes screen only via fwdPe distortion. |
| 29 | TOYO | AVOID | 1.5 | Just did a $50M dilution offering with warrants, 1d fc essentially flat, shortFloat 42.79% — landmine. |
| 30 | NIVF | AVOID | 1.0 | $4.4M micro-cap with -94.73% YTD, expected_return_pct -100, forecast values are numeric noise — pure lottery ticket. |
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