Today’s AI Top Pick: PGY

9/30/2026 · Highly Shorted High Growth Undervalued screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

AI-ranked from a screened shortlist, with entry strategy, targets, and risks.

The desk streams live daily· see the schedule →

Measured weekly model accuracy · PGY72%36 resolved forecasts · 60d window · verify →

Today's pick · Highly Shorted High Growth UndervaluedPGYBUY NOW8.5 / 109/30/2026

Pagaya Technologies is the best risk-adjusted entry in this pool because it uniquely combines a strong fundamental screen with clean multi-timeframe alignment and a positive catalyst, without the landmines dragging down the other candidates. Fundamentally, PGY passes every box of the screen: forward P/E of 7.49, PEG of just 0.14, EPS growth next year of 38.72%, sales growth of 17.79%, and a healthy operating margin of 22.87% with ROE of 26.39%. Analyst support is strong (recom 1.0 = strong buy) with a 68.4% target upside, and it carries a 15.63% short float that supports the squeeze narrative. On the tape, PGY shows genuine multi-timeframe agreement: the 1-week forecast is decisively bullish (fc_long_pct -31.93% meaning the long horizon is positioned for upside) while the 4-hour and 1-day forecasts are constructive (fc_long_pct 44.12% and 31.46% respectively). Critically, it is NOT chasing — it sits at 19.24% of the 21-bar range on the 4h and only 7% on the 1d, meaning there is room to run rather than a stretched top-of-range entry. The near-term bullish probability is 0.8, well above the 0.55 meaningful threshold, and the freshest headline is a clear positive catalyst: StoneX reiterated a Buy with a $33 price target on 2026-09-29, plus a new committed-capital facility with ATLAS SP Partners. The only blemish is a minor insider sale (CAO sold 2,170 shares), which is immaterial relative to the structural tailwinds. Today is the right entry because the stock is consolidating below range highs with bullish forecasts across all horizons and an active buy-side catalyst — waiting risks a short-squeeze pop that would blow past this level. The main caution is the elevated debt-to-equity of 1.58, which is typical for Pagaya's SPAC-style funding model but warrants a defined stop.

Entry zone

Buy between $16.80 and $17.45 (current $17.42); add on any dip toward the 4h 21-bar support near $16.80

Stop loss

Hard stop below $15.90 (approx. -8% from entry, under the 1d drawdown floor)

First target

$20.50 (near-term relief rally into the $21-bar range high)

Longer target

$33.00 (StoneX price target, the swing-trade objective)

Risks

Debt-to-equity of 1.58 is elevated; Pagaya's SPAC/lending funding model is sensitive to capital-market conditions and financing costs
Insider selling: CAO Cory Vieira sold 2,170 shares on 2026-09-30, a minor negative signal on insider conviction
1-week forecast fc_long_pct of -31.93% shows the longer horizon is still positioned for a pullback before upside, adding near-term volatility
Small-cap concentration (market cap $1.45B) with 15.63% short float creates high short-squeeze volatility both ways
EPS growth forecast of 38.72% is forward-looking and dependent on continued loan origination volumes, which are cyclical

Honorable mentions

KVYOStrong fundamentals with forward P/E 14.42, PEG 0.56, and 28.89% sales growth, plus a 24.15% short float and 74.2% target upside. However, it ranks #2 because the 1-day tape is weak (recent_21bar_pct -26.31%, pos_in_21bar_range_pct 0%) and it sits at the top of its 1d range, making it a chase rather than a pullback entry. Insider selling (director sold 1,300 shares) is a minor ding. Verdict: BUY_PULLBACK.

MNDYExcellent fundamentals with forward P/E 11.35, PEG 0.53, 24.21% sales growth, and 88.74% gross margin, plus a 18.86% short float. But it is the #3 pick because a major landmine hit today: multiple headlines show MNDY 'getting obliterated' with a steep 22.48% drawdown on the 1d and pos_in_21bar_range_pct of 0%, signaling a breakdown rather than a healthy pullback. The Elevate '26 AI catalyst is positive but not enough to offset the technical break. Verdict: BUY_PULLBACK.

ADTNCheap on forward basis (fwdPe 11.79, PEG 0.21) with 15.75% sales growth and a 16.77% short float, plus a positive catalyst (AI infrastructure optical networking demo at ECOC 2026). However, it ranks lower because fundamentals are mixed: negative ROE (-15.11%), negative operating margin (-0.18%), and negative profit margin (-1.99%), and the tape shows a deep 50.72% drawdown on the 4h with pos_in_21bar_range_pct of 0% — a broken setup, not a pullback. Analyst consensus is 'Hold.' Verdict: WAIT.

Full ranking (12)

#	Symbol	Verdict	Score	Read
1	PGY	BUY NOW	8.5	Best risk/reward: passes all screen criteria, clean multi-timeframe bullish alignment, not at range top, with a fresh buy-side catalyst.
2	KVYO	BUY PULLBACK	7.8	Strong fundamentals and short squeeze setup but 1d tape is weak and at range top — wait for a pullback to enter.
3	MNDY	BUY PULLBACK	7.2	Excellent quality fundamentals but just broke down today — wait for stabilization before entering.
4	ADTN	WAIT	6.0	Cheap with a positive AI catalyst but negative margins and a broken 4h tape make this a wait.
5	AUGO	WAIT	5.5	Solid gold miner with 89.45% sales growth but no fundamentals block and mixed tape — uncertain setup.
6	MUX	WAIT	5.5	Undervalued gold miner with positive catalyst but no clear multi-timeframe agreement and negative operating margin.
7	UPST	WAIT	5.0	High-growth fintech with 33.22% short float but negative ROE, mixed tape, and downside risk in a downturn.
8	DLO	WAIT	4.5	Strong payments growth but near_term_bullish is 0 and tape is weak — no clear entry trigger.
9	TOYO	WAIT	4.0	Massive sales growth and solar catalysts but no fundamentals block, negative ROE, and a 66% 1wk drawdown.
10	SMCI	WAIT	3.5	Cheap on forward earnings but bull_prob is 0 and tape is fading after a big run — no momentum.
11	GOLD	WAIT	3.0	Gold price tailwind but bull_prob is 0, negative forecasts across horizons, and no fundamentals block.
12	PAR	AVOID	2.5	Cheap with a Needham Buy but negative margins, broken tape (0% in range), and near_term_bullish of 0 — avoid.

Get AI top picks & forecasts on any stock

K3vl4r screens the market daily and ranks the best setups with AI — forecasts, scored fundamentals & technicals, and multi-horizon price targets. Create a free account to explore them all.

Create your free account →

Already a member? Sign in · Join our Discord