Today’s AI Top Pick: AAON

9/14/2026 · Swing Setup screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

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Today's pick · Swing SetupAAONBUY NOW8.6 / 109/14/2026

AAON is the cleanest setup in the pool and, notably, the only name in the candidates block with full multi-timeframe forecast data — the model surfaced it as the highest-conviction swing name (bullish_prob 1.0, near_term_bullish 0.8, top score 15.5 with fundamental_score 8). The tape confirms a textbook 'buy the dip in an uptrend' entry: price is at $78.50 sitting near the bottom of both the daily and weekly 21-bar ranges (pos_in_21bar_range 29.55% on 1d, just 4.25% on 1wk) with a -10.77% daily and -43.9% weekly drawdown — you are emphatically NOT chasing. Forecast magnitude is meaningful and aligned across horizons: 4h fc_short +14.9% / fc_mid +11.3% / fc_long +11.2%, 1d fc_short +13.1% / fc_mid +25.0% / fc_long +29.5%, and 1wk turning positive fc_short +1.3% / fc_mid +5.8%. The only wobble is 1wk fc_long at -8.4%, which is consistent with a mean-reversion bounce inside a longer basing pattern — exactly what a swing trader wants. Three of four horizons agreeing up, with the daily projecting a ~25–30% mid/long move off a deep pullback, is the textbook multi-timeframe confirmation the lens rewards. Fundamentals are the best in the pool that also has a working tape: PEG 0.45, fwdPe 22.4 (reasonable for HVAC secular growth), ROE 17.3%, profit margin 8.2%, salesYoY +53.5%, EPS next Y +51.2%, analyst recom 1.38 with 73.6% upside, debt/equity just 0.48, and inst ownership 84%. Compare that to the other high-scorers: SRAD (PE 214, 1.2% margin), LIF (PEG 12.75), KVYO (PE 771, negative operating margin) — all pass the screen but carry valuation or profitability warts AAON does not. News check is neutral-to-positive: the Aug 28 8-K and 'Best of the Bunch' Q2 earnings coverage suggest no landmine — the drawdown appears to be sector rotation, not a broken story. Waiting risks missing the bounce off the weekly range low; entering today captures the setup while the 4h forecast is calling for +15% short-term and RSI at 43.8 is neither overbought nor collapsing.

Entry zone

$77.50–$79.50 (starter today at $78.50, add on any wick into $76)

Stop loss

$72.00 (below the weekly 21-bar low; roughly -8% risk)

First target

$88–$90 (aligns with 4h fc_short +14.9% and 1d fc_short +13.1%)

Longer target

$100–$102 (1d fc_long +29.5% projection; also midpoint of prior weekly range)

Risks

1wk fc_long is -8.4% — this is a bounce trade inside a broken weekly downtrend, not a re-established uptrend; must respect stop.
Weekly drawdown -43.9% and pos_in_21bar_range only 4.25% mean the tape has been in relentless supply — reversal can fail if HVAC demand data weakens.
fwdPe 22.4 with ttm PE 41.7 leaves valuation vulnerable if the +51% next-year EPS growth is revised down.
Short float 6.81% is modest but rising rates or a soft macro print could keep the sector under pressure.
The Aug 28 8-K should be reviewed for any capital raise / guidance language before sizing up.

Honorable mentions

SRADSecond-highest score (14.75), bullish_prob 1.0, recom 1.6, PEG 0.69, salesYoY +24.7%, targetUpside 45%; deeply beaten down (-56.97% 1Y) which offers asymmetric upside, but PE 214 and 1.2% profit margin argue for BUY_PULLBACK, not BUY_NOW.

LIFScore 14.75, ROE 30%, profit margin 25.7%, gross margin 77.6%, RSI 40.7 near oversold; but PEG 12.75 and -56.6% 1Y perf show a broken chart — good third pick on a stabilization signal.

Full ranking (30)

#	Symbol	Verdict	Score	Read
1	AAON	BUY NOW	8.6	Only name with confirmed multi-TF bullish tape, deep pullback (weekly range 4%), best fundamentals in the pool.
2	SRAD	BUY PULLBACK	7.2	High expected return (+81%) and bullish_prob 1.0, but PE 214 and thin margins argue for a lower entry.
3	LIF	BUY PULLBACK	7.0	Strong margins and ROE 30% with RSI 40.7 near oversold — wait for weekly base to form.
4	KVYO	BUY PULLBACK	6.8	fwdPe 15.5 and PEG 0.61 attractive but 26% short float and -49% YTD demand confirmation.
5	MIR	WAIT	6.5	Recom 1.27 and inst own 108% but PE 181 and 2.4% margin cap conviction.
6	HSAI	BUY PULLBACK	6.2	Recom 1.24, 63.7% upside, salesYoY +38%, but fwdPe 124 is stretched.
7	STEP	WAIT	5.9	fwdPe 14.4 and PEG 0.72 cheap on paper but -750% ROE and -30% profit margin are red flags.
8	GLBE	WAIT	5.8	Solid fundamentals (fund_score 8, PEG 0.29) but expected return -11% signals weak near-term tape.
9	TKC	BUY PULLBACK	5.7	Cheapest name (PE 10.4, PEG 0.16, fwdPe 5.8, recom 1.0) but expected return only +2.9%.
10	GRND	WAIT	5.5	ROE 108%, margin 31%, but expected return -2.2% and bullish_prob 0.4.
11	KC	BUY PULLBACK	5.4	Recom 1.06 and 94% upside but negative margins and no fwdPe visibility.
12	AVAV	BUY PULLBACK	5.3	Sales +84% and expected return +69% but no earnings yet and -39% YTD.
13	DAVE	AVOID	5.2	Great fundamentals (ROE 105%, margin 35%) but expected return -40% and 24.6% short float — tape rolling over.
14	GLXY	WAIT	5.1	Sales +92% and recom 1.25 but debt/eq 2.78 and negative margins; crypto-linked beta.
15	DLO	AVOID	5.0	Clean fundamentals but expected return -20% signals distribution.
16	BTDR	WAIT	4.9	Sales +128% but 38% short float, -55% profit margin — speculative.
17	VFS	AVOID	4.6	Gross margin -51% and operating margin -82% disqualify despite screen match.
18	NTSK	AVOID	4.5	fwdPe 346, -95% operating margin, debt/eq 4.67 — screen artifact.
19	ALM	AVOID	4.4	P/S 71.9 is extreme; expected return -27% confirms froth.
20	VICR	AVOID	4.3	+288% 1Y and expected return -54% — classic top-tick warning.
21	SIMO	AVOID	4.2	+219% 1Y with expected return -70%; unwind risk severe.
22	TGTX	AVOID	4.1	Great margins but expected return -38% and 21% short float.
23	NESR	AVOID	4.0	+224% 1Y with expected return -50% — mean reversion trap.
24	ARIS	AVOID	3.9	Gold miner up 100% 1Y, expected return -36%.
25	ACMR	AVOID	3.8	+139% 1Y and expected return -33% — extended.
26	TGB	AVOID	3.7	PE 380 and expected return -35% — speculative miner.
27	SVM	AVOID	3.6	+130% 1Y silver play, expected return -30%.
28	AG	AVOID	3.5	+88% 1Y, expected return -21%; commodity beta at highs.
29	BTG	AVOID	3.4	Cheap on PE 9.8 but expected return -20% suggests exhaustion.
30	RSI	AVOID	3.2	+36% YTD with expected return -23%; ride is done.

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