Today’s AI Top Pick: GPI

7/31/2026 · Low Float Mid Cap Undervalued screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

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Today's pick · Low Float Mid Cap UndervaluedGPIBUY NOW8.2 / 107/31/2026

Group 1 Automotive (GPI) is the cleanest setup in the pool right now. It passes the screen with room to spare — fwdPe 6.47 (lowest in the group), PEG 0.79, PS 0.16, EPS next year $12.46, sales growth 7.17%, and analyst recom 1.67 with a 37.8% target upside. It's the only name that combines cheap valuation with a genuinely constructive multi-timeframe tape: 4h forecasts +12.87/+16.03/+21.45%, and 1d forecasts +15.24/+25.31/+31.0% across short/mid/long horizons — a rare case of forecast magnitude AND direction agreeing across two independent timeframes. Critically, GPI is NOT extended. Position-in-range is 11.96% on the daily and 15.66% on the 4h, with drawdown ~-17% from the 21-bar high on both. This is exactly the 'buy the base, not the breakout' profile the mandate favors — you're paying for a cheap auto retailer that has been beaten up (-24.56% YTD, -28.11% 1Y) but where the model sees a mean-reversion + trend re-ignition setup. RSI 42.48 confirms it's not overbought. The 1h shows short-term weakness (-17.35% recent, fc_short +3.17 but mid/long flat-to-negative), which is why today is a good entry — you're buying into intraday softness ahead of a bullish daily/4h reversal signal. Bullish_prob 1.0 and near_term_bullish 1.0 corroborate. News flow is neutral-to-constructive: Q2 earnings call coverage on 7/30–7/31 with no headline red flags (no guidance cut, no legal issue, no dilution). Contrast this with MORN, which despite an earnings beat is pinned at 100% of its weekly range and 87% of its 4h range with negative 1h/4h forecasts (-9.75%, -7.59%) — classic chase risk. NMM has a beautiful fundamental profile (peg 0.20, fwdPe 4.49) but every single forecast timeframe is deeply negative (-32% to -54% on weekly) and it's at 100% of range on all four timeframes after a +91.84% 1-year run — the tape is screaming distribution. ABG's forecasts are broadly negative and recom is a weak 2.57. Today is the entry because GPI offers asymmetric upside: fwdPe 6.47 gives a valuation floor, the daily forecast is calling for 25–31% into the mid/long window, and you're buying at the bottom of the 21-bar range rather than chasing an extended name. Waiting risks missing the reversal the 1d/4h forecasts flag.

GPI forecast chart
Entry zone
$294–$299 (scale in near current $296.71; add on any dip toward $290 which is near the 21-bar low)
Stop loss
$278 (below the 21-bar range low, ~6% risk — invalidates the mean-reversion thesis)
First target
$325 (roughly +10%, aligns with 4h fc_short +12.87%)
Longer target
$370–$390 (aligns with 1d fc_mid/long +25–31% and analyst target upside 37.8%)
Risks
  • Auto retail cyclicality — GPI is down -28.11% over the past year and -24.56% YTD; if consumer credit tightens further, EPS $12.46 estimates could be cut
  • Debt/equity 1.98 is elevated; rising-rate or credit-spread shocks hurt highly-levered dealer groups disproportionately
  • 1h forecasts are negative (fc_mid -0.23, fc_long -0.88) — near-term chop is likely before the daily setup plays out; a bad tape day could tag the stop
  • Thin operating margin (4.45%) and profit margin (1.43%) leave little cushion if same-store sales disappoint
  • Short float 8.55% is modest but non-trivial; a broader risk-off day could see accelerated selling in beaten-down small/mid caps
Honorable mentions
MORNBest fundamental_score (7.25) in the group with a Q2 earnings beat, ROE 31.96%, and operating margin 23.29%, but it's at 100% of the weekly range and 87% of the 4h range with negative 1h/4h forecasts (-9.75%, -7.59%) — great business, wrong entry. BUY_PULLBACK toward $175.
ABGFundamentals okay (fwdPe 7.71, pe 8.72) and Barclays raised PT to $265, but forecasts are broadly negative across 1h/4h/1d (-11.78 to -5.56%) and recom is a mediocre 2.57. Setup isn't confirming.
Full ranking (4)
#SymbolVerdictScoreRead
1GPIBUY NOW8.2Cheap fwdPe 6.47, bottom of range (12% pos), and 4h/1d forecasts calling +16 to +31% — asymmetric setup with a clear stop.
2MORNBUY PULLBACK5.8High-quality compounder with a Q2 beat, but pinned at 100% of weekly range with negative near-term forecasts — wait for a dip.
3ABGWAIT3.6Screens cheap but forecasts are negative across timeframes, recom is 2.57, and near-term bullish only 0.4.
4NMMAVOID2.4Beautiful fundamentals (peg 0.20) undone by 100%-of-range across all timeframes and forecasts of -33% to -54% — the tape says distribution after a +91.84% 1Y run.

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⚠️ This AI-generated analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forecasts and scores are model outputs that can be wrong; markets involve substantial risk of loss. Do your own research.