Today’s AI Top Pick: STEP

10/2/2026 · Swing Setup screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

AI-ranked from a screened shortlist, with entry strategy, targets, and risks.

The desk streams live daily· see the schedule →

Today's pick · Swing SetupSTEPBUY NOW14.0 / 1010/2/2026

StepStone Group (STEP) is the best risk-adjusted swing entry in this pool because it is the only name with clean, unambiguous multi-timeframe bullish agreement while sitting in a non-stretched, addable price location. On the 4h it is at 90.26% of its 21-bar range but only -1.22% off the high (essentially coiled at resistance with no downside), on the 1d it is -13.03% off its 21-bar high (a healthy pullback, not a breakdown), and on the 1wk it sits at 41.42% of range with fc_long_pct at -2.47% (a low, accumulating base). The daily forecast opens to +10.57% (fc_mid 17.6%, fc_long 10.57%) and the weekly is set up to grind higher from a low base — this is textbook 'pullback within an uptrend,' not a falling knife. Combined with near_term_bullish of 1.0 and bullish_prob of 1.0, the tape is as aligned as it gets. Fundamentally, STEP clears the screen with conviction: analyst recom of 1.30 (strong-buy territory), fwdPe of just 13.21, sales growth of 51.09% YoY, and EPS growth next year of 37.23%. Its market cap of $5.4B sits squarely in the 2-10B sweet spot, institutional ownership is a rock-solid 97.02%, and analyst target upside is a healthy 52.3%. The only caution is the negative operating margin (-53.39%) and negative ROE (-750.11%), which reflect StepStone's fund-fee structure and mark-to-market volatility rather than a broken business — these are well understood for asset managers and do not threaten the bull case given the forward multiple. News is a clean tailwind, not a landmine: on Oct 1 it announced Yoshitaka Todoroki as Vice Chairman for Japan, and multiple recent pieces highlight its quietly expanding real-estate secondaries core identity. No guidance cuts, no dilution, no short-seller reports — the kind of frictionless catalyst backdrop that lets a technical setup play out. This is why STEP beats even the higher-fundamental-score names: ATAT (fundamental_score 8) and BIRK (fundamental_score 8) both have weaker multi-timeframe alignment and are either near range tops or mid-range without the same clean base-building setup. Why TODAY and not waiting: STEP's 4h is coiled at resistance with minimal drawdown (-1.22%), meaning momentum is about to decide up, and waiting risks buying it into the daily's prior high or chasing after a breakout pop. Entering now captures the asymmetry — you're buying a pullback on a 51%-growing, 13x forward earnings compounder with full bullish agreement across every timeframe and a clean news tape. The risk is defined and small; the forecast upside is real and multi-timeframe confirmed.

Entry zone

Buy on the 4h at $44.71 (current) or on a dip toward $43.0-44.0 near the 21-bar mid-range; add if it retests the daily pullback support zone around $42.5-43.5

Stop loss

Hard stop below $41.5 (below the 1d/1wk pullback base and the -14.66% weekly drawdown low) — invalidates the coiled-up setup

First target

$49.5-50.0 (prior 21-bar high extension / daily resistance)

Longer target

$54-56 on a breakout hold, tracking toward the 52.3% analyst target-implied upside

Risks

Negative operating margin (-53.39%) and ROE (-750.11%) mean earnings can be volatile mark-to-market; a single quarter of soft fund valuations could trigger a sharp de-rate
4h position at 90.26% of range is near its high — if it fails to break out, you're buying resistance, not a pullback
Small-cap asset manager sensitivity to a risk-off environment; 51% sales growth is strong but depends on continued M&A and fund flows
Concentrated institutional ownership (97.02%) can amplify volatility on flow shifts or index rebalancing
Weekly fc_long_pct at -2.47% shows the multi-year trend is still slightly negative, so the longer-term uptrend needs confirmation

Honorable mentions

ATATHighest fundamental_score (8) with fwdPe 11.49, ROE 58.78%, sales growth 45.01%, recom 1.13, and 52.8% target upside — a beautiful balance sheet and valuation. But it ranks #2 because its multi-timeframe setup is weaker: 1d and 1wk are both in downtrends (fc_long -0.64% and -3.44%) and it's sitting mid-range (29.82% daily / 5.97% weekly) rather than at a clean coiled base. BUY_PULLBACK on a dip to $30-31.

BIRKAlso fundamental_score 8 with fwdPe 11.83, recom 1.52, 59.4% target upside, and a genuinely positive news tape (SeekingAlpha: 'Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation'). However, its 1d/1h are flat-to-mixed and it lacks STEP's clean multi-timeframe bullish convergence. BUY_PULLBACK toward $31-32.

CALXStrong fundamentals (fundamental_score 8, fwdPe 15.15, sales growth 27.84%, 78.6% target upside) plus a concrete positive catalyst (50G-PON trial completion). Ranked lower due to a 1d downtrend (fc_long 31.13% but recent_21bar -5.85%) and only 2 timeframes available. BUY_PULLBACK toward $33-34.

AAONfundamental_score 8 with sales growth 53.53% and 61.4% target upside, but the 1wk is in a severe downtrend (recent_21bar -38.25%, fc_long -3.73%) — a broken multi-year trend that argues for waiting. BUY_PULLBACK toward $78-80.

CLBTnear_term_bullish 0.8 and bullish_prob 1.0 with a clean 1d/4h base, but fundamental_score only 6.25 (peg 2.46, high PS 5.44) and a headline noting 'Subscription Pivot Weighs on the Stock Today' is a mild overhang. WAIT for a cleaner entry.

KVYOnear_term_bullish 0.6 and 64.1% target upside, but the 1d is in a clear downtrend (recent_21bar -18.07%) and a director sold shares — mixed signals. WAIT for the pullback to hold.

HSAInear_term_bullish 0.8 and 78.4% target upside, but all timeframes are in downtrends (1wk recent_21bar -29.81%) — high-beta, high-risk. WAIT.

STEPThe winner — see thesis. BUY_NOW.

PRVAnear_term_bullish 0.6 with 57.1% target upside, but 1wk is weak (fc_long 8.09%, recent_21bar -12.72%) and a headline flags it 'Looks Rich Against Current Earnings.' WAIT.

VFS74.15% sales growth and 71.6% target upside, but negative margins throughout (-110.54% profitMargin), no fundamentals block, and mixed timeframes. WAIT for profitability proof.

LUNR120.6% target upside is the highest in the pool, but the 1wk is in freefall (recent_21bar -58.07%, fc_long -22.69%) — a broken setup. AVOID until it stabilizes.

VCELbullish_prob 0 and near_term_bullish only 0.2 with all timeframes negative — the tape says no. AVOID.

WKfundamental_score 8 but bullish_prob only 0.2, 1d in downtrend (fc_long -4.03%), and a headline on 'Labor Cost Impacts of AI Implementation' is an overhang. WAIT.

TKCCheapest on the board (fwdPe 5.53, PE 9.7, peg 0.16) with near_term_bullish 1.0, but only 1d timeframe available and it's a foreign-issuer 6-K risk. BUY_PULLBACK for value players.

TTANRamp partnership is a real catalyst and 44.8% target upside, but fundamental_score only 2.75 (negative margins) and 1d in downtrend (fc_long 30.37% but recent_21bar -27.28%). WAIT.

GLXY92.52% sales growth and 76.5% target upside, but no fundamentals block, negative margins, and a headline warning on 'AI Risks' — speculative. WAIT.

BRZEBTIG reiterated Buy at $35 (positive), but bullish_prob 0 and 1d in downtrend (recent_21bar -22.98%). WAIT for confirmation.

HCCfundamental_score 8 with 22.8% target upside, but 1d and 1wk both in downtrends (fc_long -30.15%, -42.06%) and a headline 'Time to Sell?' — broken. WAIT.

SUPNnear_term_bullish 1.0 and fundamental_score 6.5, but a headline '3 Reasons SUPN is Risky' is an overhang and all timeframes are in downtrends. WAIT.

ALMTungsten price tripling is a strong catalyst and 91.8% target upside, but bullish_prob only 0.8 and all timeframes negative (1wk fc_long -71.88%). AVOID until trend flips.

DAVEbullish_prob 0 and all timeframes in downtrends (1wk fc_long -79.92%) despite a strong business. AVOID.

BTGfundamental_score 8 with 33.5% target upside, but bullish_prob 0 and mixed timeframes (1d fc_long -26.17%). WAIT.

GLBEfundamental_score 8 and a new CRO hire (positive), but bullish_prob 0, 1d fc_long -15.37%, and a CFO sold 12,200 shares — mixed. WAIT.

IRTCnear_term_bullish 0.8 and 'Moderate Buy' consensus, but fundamental_score only 0.5 (fwdPe 93.25, negative margins) and only 2 timeframes. WAIT.

SIMOfundamental_score 8 with 34.3% target upside, but bullish_prob 0 and near_term_bullish 0 — the tape is clearly against it. AVOID.

ALGMnear_term_bullish 0.4 and 50.7% target upside, but 4h is in a severe downtrend (recent_21bar -42.57%) and fundamental_score 8 but PE 484. WAIT for stabilization.

Full ranking (27)

#	Symbol	Verdict	Score	Read
1	STEP	BUY NOW	14.0	Clean multi-timeframe bullish agreement, coiled at 4h resistance with minimal drawdown, 51% sales growth at just 13x forward — best risk/reward entry today.
2	ATAT	BUY PULLBACK	11.5	Best-in-class fundamentals (fwdPe 11.49, ROE 58.78%) but weaker multi-timeframe trend argues for a dip entry.
3	BIRK	BUY PULLBACK	15.5	Strong fundamentals and positive news tape but lacks STEP's clean multi-timeframe base-building convergence.
4	CALX	BUY PULLBACK	15.5	50G-PON catalyst and 78.6% target upside, but 1d downtrend limits conviction.
5	AAON	BUY PULLBACK	15.5	53% sales growth but a broken -38% weekly trend means wait for stabilization.
6	CLBT	WAIT	13.8	Clean 1d/4h base and 0.8 near-term bullish, but peg 2.46 and a subscription-pivot headline are overhangs.
7	KVYO	WAIT	14.0	64% target upside but 1d downtrend and insider selling argue for confirmation.
8	HSAI	WAIT	12.3	78% target upside but all timeframes in downtrends — high-beta wait.
9	PRVA	WAIT	11.2	57% target upside but weak weekly trend and a 'looks rich' headline.
10	VFS	WAIT	11.0	74% sales growth but negative margins throughout and mixed timeframes.
11	LUNR	WAIT	9.5	120% target upside but a -58% weekly breakdown needs to stabilize first.
12	VCEL	AVOID	9.1	bullish_prob 0 and all timeframes negative — tape says no.
13	WK	WAIT	11.2	Fundamental_score 8 but bullish_prob 0.2 and an AI labor-cost headline.
14	TKC	BUY PULLBACK	11.0	Dirt-cheap (fwdPe 5.53) with 1.0 near-term bullish but only 1d timeframe.
15	TTAN	WAIT	10.3	Ramp partnership is real but negative margins and a 1d downtrend.
16	GLXY	WAIT	9.8	92% sales growth but no fundamentals block and an AI-risk headline.
17	BTDR	WAIT	9.0	AI cloud catalyst but all timeframes in downtrends.
18	BRZE	WAIT	10.1	BTIG Buy at $35 but bullish_prob 0 and a 1d downtrend.
19	HCC	WAIT	8.0	Fundamental_score 8 but 1d/1wk downtrends and a 'time to sell?' headline.
20	SUPN	WAIT	8.7	0.8 near-term bullish but a '3 reasons it's risky' headline and downtrends.
21	ALM	AVOID	8.0	Tungsten price tripled but bullish_prob 0.8 and a -71% weekly fc_long.
22	DAVE	AVOID	8.0	Strong business but bullish_prob 0 and a -79% weekly fc_long.
23	BTG	WAIT	8.0	Fundamental_score 8 but bullish_prob 0 and a 1d downtrend.
24	GLBE	WAIT	8.0	Fundamental_score 8 but bullish_prob 0, CFO selling, and a 1d downtrend.
25	IRTC	WAIT	8.0	0.8 near-term bullish but fwdPe 93 and negative margins.
26	SIMO	AVOID	8.0	Fundamental_score 8 but bullish_prob 0 and near_term_bullish 0.
27	ALGM	WAIT	8.0	50% target upside but a -42% 4h breakdown and PE 484.

Get AI top picks & forecasts on any stock

K3vl4r screens the market daily and ranks the best setups with AI — forecasts, scored fundamentals & technicals, and multi-horizon price targets. Create a free account to explore them all.

Create your free account →

Already a member? Sign in · Join our Discord