Today’s AI Top Pick: STEP

7/23/2026 · Swing Setup screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

AI-ranked from a screened shortlist, with entry strategy, targets, and risks.

Today's pick · Swing SetupSTEPBUY NOW8.6 / 107/23/2026

StepStone Group (STEP) is the cleanest multi-timeframe swing setup in the pool right now. Unlike almost every other candidate, STEP shows unanimously bullish forecasts across ALL four timeframes: 1h (+16.99/+25.09/+22.27), 4h (+24.11/+26.39/+39.62), 1d (+29.15/+36.9/+36.77), and importantly the 1wk (+9.47/+6.42/+1.24) — no weekly bearish 'landmine' like KTOS (-53% long), EQX (-32% long), HMY (-65% long) or AVAV (-6% weekly). Kronos bullish_prob is 1.0 and near_term_bullish is 1.0. This is textbook MTF confluence. Critically, this is NOT a chase. Position-in-21bar-range is 9.27% (1h), 34.17% (4h), 29.96% (1d), 10.36% (1wk) — the stock is sitting at the low end of its range on every timeframe while forecasts point sharply up. Drawdown from 21-bar highs runs -4.33% to -24.84%, meaning we're buying weakness that is projected to reverse, not extension. Compare that to CELH (100% pos 1h, near top), VFS (100% pos), or SAIL (100% pos 1h) — those are chases; STEP is a coiled spring. Fundamentals meet the screen and then some: EPS growth next year +35.41%, sales YoY +69.89%, fwdPE 12.33 (cheap), PEG 0.63, analyst recom 1.38, targetUpsidePct 61.8%, fundamental_score 6.5. The trailing GAAP negatives (ROE -750, operMargin -45.64) are IPO/reorg artifacts common to alt-asset managers — the forward PE and analyst upside tell the real story. News check is clean: Morgan Stanley trimmed PT to $63 but MAINTAINED Equal-Weight (no downgrade), and the sector headline noted 2021-high buyout multiples returning — a direct tailwind for private-markets managers like StepStone. No layoff announcements (unlike MNDY -20% headcount), no insider selling (unlike TTAN, SAIL, CLBT, GLBE), no PT-cut cascade (unlike TMDX). TODAY is the entry because the stock is near range lows with forecasts firing on all cylinders — waiting risks missing the reversion move implied by 29–37% 1d forecasts.

Entry zone

$40.50–$41.50 (near current $41.11, at bottom third of 21-bar range)

Stop loss

$37.90 (below the -8.2% 1d drawdown level and the recent 1wk swing structure)

First target

$47.50 (aligned with 1h +17% / 4h +24% short-horizon forecasts)

Longer target

$55.00–$56.00 (aligned with 1d +36.9% mid / 4h +39.6% long forecasts and analyst 61.8% upside)

Risks

Weekly drawdown of -24.84% suggests the longer-term trend is not yet confirmed — a break below $37.90 invalidates the reversal thesis
Trailing operating margin -45.64% and ROE -750 look ugly on paper — if the market rotates away from private-credit/alt-managers, the forward story gets discounted
Short float only 7.3% so no squeeze fuel; move must come from real buyers
Morgan Stanley just cut PT to $63 — sell-side sentiment is drifting lower even if ratings are held
Financial sector correlation risk: any credit-spread widening or private-markets fundraising slowdown hits STEP directly

Honorable mentions

SRADAlso fundamental_score 8, near_term_bullish 1.0, position 0% on 4h/1d (deep value), 4h/1d forecasts +22% to +41%. Only knock: 1h forecasts turn negative mid/long (-5.96/-8.72), so the intraday tape is soft. Great swing but slightly less clean than STEP.

KVYOProb 1.0, near-term 0.8, all four timeframes bullish on mid/long (+30/+37% 1d, +34% 1wk mid), moderate range position 22–56%. New CFO announcement is a mild positive. Fund score only 4 (unprofitable) keeps it behind STEP/SRAD.

Full ranking (30)

#	Symbol	Verdict	Score	Read
1	STEP	BUY NOW	8.6	All 4 TFs bullish, sitting at range lows (9–34% pos), fwdPE 12.3, no bad news — cleanest MTF setup in the pool.
2	SRAD	BUY NOW	8.1	Fund score 8, near-term 1.0, 4h/1d forecasts +25–41% from range bottom (0% pos), only 1h forecasts soft.
3	KVYO	BUY NOW	7.4	Prob 1.0, +37% long 1d forecast, moderate range position, positive CFO/undervalued headlines.
4	MNDY	BUY PULLBACK	7.0	Huge 1wk forecast (+128/+180%) but 20% layoffs headline creates near-term uncertainty; wait for pullback from 88% 1h range pos.
5	KC	BUY NOW	6.9	1h +47%/+47%/+40% and prob 1.0, but ADR/China risk and thin fundamentals cap conviction.
6	AVAV	BUY NOW	6.7	Near-term 1.0, +47/+56% 1d mid/long, new Army contract catalyst; weekly forecast slightly negative.
7	EQX	BUY PULLBACK	6.4	Excellent 1h/4h forecasts and PEG 0.18, but 1wk forecast -12/-27/-32 is a big red flag — swing not investment.
8	TMDX	BUY PULLBACK	6.2	1d forecasts +53–60%, but recent Evercore PT cut and 1h short-term forecast negative — wait for confirmation.
9	KTOS	WAIT	5.9	Big 4h/1d forecasts but 1wk forecast -53% long and PE 283 — asymmetric downside.
10	HMY	BUY PULLBACK	5.7	PEG 0.09, ROE 33%, prob 1.0; but 1wk forecast -65% long is a hard veto for anything beyond quick swings.
11	BTDR	WAIT	5.5	Near-term 1.0 and record BTC production, but 4h/1d down -22/-29% and 1wk +70% shows extreme volatility.
12	KRMN	WAIT	5.3	Nice 1h/4h forecasts +37–52%, acquisition catalyst, but PE 210 and no 1wk data limits conviction.
13	GLXY	WAIT	5.1	Sales +351% YoY and expansion news, but 1h/4h/1d recent all red and no weekly TF — mixed signal.
14	CLBT	WAIT	4.9	Prob 0.4, near-term 0, CEO sold $1.6M, and 1wk forecast -32% long — thesis eroding.
15	CELH	WAIT	4.8	Strong 1d/1wk mid/long forecasts but 1h at 100% range pos = chasing right at the top.
16	BRZE	WAIT	4.7	Prob 0 despite JPM PT raise; 1h forecasts all negative, waiting for tape to confirm sell-side optimism.
17	TARS	WAIT	4.5	EPS growth 337% but 1wk forecast -54% long and PT cut this week — wait.
18	VFS	WAIT	4.3	Prob 1.0 and positive delivery headlines, but 1h/4h/1d at 92–100% range pos = chase; margins -110%.
19	GIL	WAIT	4.2	Solid fund score 8 and near-term 1.0, but 1wk forecast -25% long undermines swing thesis.
20	TTAN	WAIT	4.0	1h forecast -9 to -13%, CFO insider selling — thesis not confirming on tape.
21	SAIL	WAIT	3.9	Insider selling headlines, 1h at 100% range pos with -8% forecast — chase risk.
22	BKV	WAIT	3.9	Solid fund score 8 but 1d forecasts flat/negative and no 1wk data; expected return -2%.
23	BIRK	AVOID	3.5	Seaport downgrade, 1h at 100% pos, 4h/1d/1wk forecasts mostly negative.
24	AGYS	AVOID	3.3	1h forecast -27%/-18%/-15%, PT/fair value cut headline, prob 0.
25	SARO	WAIT	3.2	Nice LEAP contract news but 1h/4h forecasts negative and expected return -1.7%.
26	GLBE	AVOID	3.1	Prob 0, COO sold shares, 1h/4h forecasts -6 to -12% short — no confirmation.
27	ARIS	AVOID	2.8	1wk forecast -50/-60/-73% is catastrophic; near-term 0.
28	LC	AVOID	2.6	All 3 available TFs forecast negative (-11 to -23%), expected return -18%.
29	HAPN	AVOID	2.5	Duplicate of LC data, prob 0, expected return -12%.
30	TGB	AVOID	2.2	Prob 0, expected return -30%, PE 270 — screen match only, tape broken.

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