Today’s AI Top Pick: UPST

8/13/2026 · Highly Shorted High Growth Deep Rotation screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.

AI-ranked from a screened shortlist, with entry strategy, targets, and risks.

Today's pick · Highly Shorted High Growth Deep RotationUPSTBUY NOW8.6 / 108/13/2026

Upstart is the cleanest 'coiled spring' setup in the pool: it passes the screen (shortFloat 30.28%, epsNextY 163.29%, salesYoY 46.30%) AND the tape confirms across every timeframe. The 4h chart shows the stock sitting at just 1.96% of its 21-bar range with a -20.39% drawdown from the recent high — this is a deep, mechanical pullback, not a broken trend. Meanwhile the daily and weekly forecasts stack: 4h fc_short +22.63% / fc_long +21.35%, 1d fc_short +4.31% / fc_mid +41.78% / fc_long +50.96%, and 1wk fc_mid +45.90% / fc_long +93.06%. That's four positive forecast horizons with the strongest magnitudes in the entire covered universe, on a stock whose bullish_prob = 1.0. Fundamentals back this up without being priced for perfection: fwdPe 16, PEG 0.76, profitMargin 4.84% (positive, unlike most peers on this list), operMargin 3.99%, and analyst targetUpsidePct +36.6% with recom 2.18. The company just printed Q2 (Aug 11) with the transcript and BofA SMID cap conference appearance both hitting the tape — no guidance-cut, no dilution, no short-seller report, no regulatory landmine in the headline block. The heavy short interest (30.28%) means any incremental positive AI-lending narrative can force a squeeze. Why TODAY rather than wait: the 4h drawdown to -20% has already happened, the daily is only at 58.8% of range (mid-range, not chasing), and the weekly still shows +18.05% momentum in the last 21 bars — so the pullback is intra-uptrend, not a top. Waiting for a lower entry risks missing the reflex bounce that both the 4h (+22%) and 1d (+41% mid) forecasts imply. The setup is: deep-in-uptrend dip + positive earnings + heavy short float + strong multi-TF forecast + no bad news = full-conviction entry. I passed on CRK (best raw fundamentals: PE 8.09, profitMargin 26.77%, near_term_bullish 1.0) because its 1wk forecast is negative (-1.83% / -6.26%) and analyst recom is a weak 2.76 with just 18.3% upside — the tape doesn't confirm on the highest timeframe. I passed on FOUR despite gorgeous multi-TF forecasts because the 'Shift4 racked by Iran turmoil' headline is exactly the kind of geopolitical/regulatory landmine the brief tells me to penalize.

Entry zone

$28.50–$29.50 (scale in around current $29.24; add on any dip toward $27.50 which is near the 4h dd low)

Stop loss

$25.90 (below the 4h 21-bar low; ~11% risk from entry)

First target

$34.00 (aligns with 4h fc_short +22% and 1d fc_short zone; ~16% gain)

Longer target

$42–$46 (1d fc_long +50.96% / 1wk fc_mid +45.90%; ~45% gain over swing horizon)

Risks

30.28% short float cuts both ways — a squeeze up is possible, but if credit spreads widen UPST can gap down 10%+ in a single session
PE 59.57 and debtEq 2.54 mean any macro credit scare (rising unemployment, delinquency uptick) hits sentiment hard even if the Q2 print was fine
Weekly fc_short is essentially flat (+0.21%) — the near-term bounce could stall before the mid/long forecasts play out, requiring patience
profitMargin is only 4.84% and operMargin 3.99% — thin, so any revenue miss next quarter compresses earnings disproportionately
4h dd of -20.39% suggests recent selling pressure was real; a break of $25.90 invalidates the base and would signal trend change

Honorable mentions

CRKBest fundamentals on the list (PE 8.09, PEG 0.63, ROE 20.92%, profitMargin 26.77%) with near_term_bullish 1.0 and a monster -41.06% weekly drawdown creating deep-value optionality. 4h forecast fc_long +77.15% and pos 0% of range = textbook bottom-fishing setup. Downgraded from #1 only because weekly forecasts are still negative (-6.26% mid) and analyst recom 2.76 / upside 18.3% is soft.

FOURMulti-TF forecast alignment is arguably the cleanest in the pool (4h +32/+35/+25, 1d +8/+35/+43, 1wk +1/+35/+69), fwdPe just 6.81, PEG 0.48, salesYoY 32.44%. Held back from #1 by the Aug-11 'Shift4 racked by Iran turmoil' headline — potential geopolitical/regulatory overhang that could keep a lid on the bounce until clarity.

Full ranking (31)

#	Symbol	Verdict	Score	Read
1	UPST	BUY NOW	8.6	Deep 4h pullback (-20%, pos 1.96%) into all-timeframe-positive forecast stack with 30% short float and clean post-earnings tape.
2	CRK	BUY NOW	8.1	Best fundamentals (PE 8, 26% profit margin) + -41% weekly dd + 4h fc_long +77% = deep-value squeeze candidate.
3	FOUR	BUY PULLBACK	7.8	Cleanest multi-TF forecast alignment (all positive) at fwdPe 6.81, but Iran headline is a fresh overhang.
4	TMDX	BUY PULLBACK	7.0	near_term_bullish 0.8 and roe 36% but sitting at 87% of 4h range — wait for a dip; 'margins down, trials delayed' article is a caution.
5	KVYO	BUY PULLBACK	6.7	Big forecasts (1wk fc_long +42.66%) and salesYoY +29% but near_term_bullish 0 and reduced GM outlook flagged in analyst note.
6	PAR	BUY PULLBACK	6.5	Massive 1wk fc_long +122% and strong Q2 print, but pos 89% daily / 84% weekly means chasing at the highs.
7	BIRK	WAIT	6.2	Solid fundamentals (fund_score 8) but every timeframe forecast turning negative short-term at 100% of hourly/4h range.
8	PGY	WAIT	5.9	PEG 0.17 and Q2 beat + higher guidance, but 1wk fc_short -17.53% after +84% run — needs a real reset.
9	PHAT	BUY PULLBACK	5.6	epsNextY +219%, targetUpside 138.8%, near_term_bullish 0.8, but 1wk forecast still negative and price target trimmed to $22.
10	CELH	WAIT	5.4	Strong daily fc (+68% mid) but weekly forecasts negative, COO shakeup headline, and PE 119 leaves no cushion.
11	GLXY	BUY PULLBACK	5.2	Crypto proxy with Rosenblatt $35 target and Helios ramp, but only 4h/1d data and 4h pos 11.93% = still de-risking.
12	ABAT	BUY PULLBACK	5.0	near_term_bullish 1.0 and 4h fc_long +50% but dilution headline and 1wk forecast negative.
13	BTDR	BUY PULLBACK	4.9	44% short float, -41.75% 4h dd, all-TF near_term_bullish 1.0; Benchmark $22 target, but pure crypto-miner beta.
14	PROP	WAIT	4.7	91% short float and 4h fc_short +89% is lottery-ticket territory; debtEq 1222 and roe -700 make it uninvestable at size.
15	RARE	WAIT	4.5	Positive litigation settlement and $50 PT reiterated, but 4h forecasts negative and near_term_bullish 0.
16	HIVE	BUY PULLBACK	4.4	Crypto miner with Chardan $7.5 target initiation, but 4h fc_short negative and grossMargin -21%.
17	ASST	AVOID	4.2	profitMargin -17,113% and ps 183 despite HC Wainwright buy — screen artifact, not a real business today.
18	INV	WAIT	4.0	1wk fc_mid +130% is eye-catching but ps 90 and operMargin -3586% make this pure speculation.
19	SYM	WAIT	3.9	Q3 profit return positive but 1wk forecasts all negative (-16% mid) and PE 456 leaves no valuation support.
20	ASPI	WAIT	3.7	1d fc_mid +46% but 1wk fc_mid -28% and profitMargin -644% — screen passes on hype not fundamentals.
21	TNXP	AVOID	3.5	Weekly forecast of +43,056% is a corrupt data outlier; ignoring the tape, fundamentals are broken (opMargin -568%).
22	KLAR	WAIT	3.4	1d fc_mid -18% undercuts the growth story; recent IPO with no track record and null perfYear.
23	REAX	WAIT	3.2	At 100% of 4h/1d range with 1wk forecasts negative (-15% short) — chasing after a run, no margin of safety.
24	LDI	WAIT	3.0	4h fc_short +149% looks amazing but debtEq 22.93 and analyst recom 3.75 = value trap risk.
25	PGY	WAIT	3.0	Duplicate — already ranked above.
26	MUX	AVOID	2.8	Weekly fc_long -46.58% and 1d/4h flipping negative; near_term_bullish just 0.4 and bullish_prob 0.2.
27	DUOL	AVOID	2.5	1d forecast fc_long -13.41%, 100% of weekly range, targetUpside NEGATIVE (-8.6%) — priced-for-perfection top.
28	SMCI	AVOID	2.3	At 100% of daily range, 1wk fc_long -35%, bullish_prob 0.2 — extended and forecast rolling over.
29	GRND	AVOID	2.0	bullish_prob 0, every forecast negative (4h fc_mid -28%, 1wk fc_long -20%) despite decent fundamentals.
30	DLO	AVOID	1.9	bullish_prob 0 with all forecast horizons negative on every timeframe — trend has turned.
31	DAVE	AVOID	1.4	1wk fc_long -53.84%, 1d fc_long -35%, bullish_prob 0 — post-earnings distribution despite strong fundamentals.

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