Today’s AI Top Pick: UWMC
7/13/2026 · Highly Shorted Undervalued screen · a free sample of K3vl4r’s AI-curated picks.
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UWMC is the cleanest setup on this list: it passes the screen hard (fwdPe 4.32, peg 0.06, roe 33.65, shortFloat 20.94%) AND the tape confirms across every single timeframe. Forecast short is +8.59/+28.91/+45.17/+20.01 across 1h/4h/1d/1wk, mid is +12.7/+59.4/+88.13/+67.53, long is +36.32/+100.38/+101.64/+114.56 — that is unbroken multi-TF agreement on both direction and magnitude, with the daily and weekly compounding into triple-digit long-horizon reads. Bullish_prob is 1.0 and near_term_bullish is 1.0. Critically, this is not a chase. Position in 21-bar range is 50/17.46/16.48/0 across the four TFs — bottom of the weekly range with a −49.54% weekly drawdown from high, RSI 34.89 (oversold). You are buying a beaten-down name (−52.51% YTD, −49.88% 1Y) at a spot where sellers are exhausted, not extrapolating a rip. Analyst targetUpsidePct is +109.1 and the recom is 2.3. The headline tape is a positive tiebreaker rather than a landmine: Keefe Bruyette just upgraded UWMC to Buy (2026-07-09) and Barclays reiterated Overweight (2026-07-07) — both fresh catalysts landing right as forecasts inflect. The comparable strong-forecast names either have news drag (PEGA got a downgrade 7/8, IT has 'governance questions', CWH has target cuts and 'declining sales' notes, MUX/CRK weekly forecasts are negative) or are already extended (BL/FOUR/DLO/PGY sitting near the top of their 21-bar ranges). Today is the entry because the daily/4h are still low in their ranges (16-17%) but the 1h has already begun to lift (pos 50%, short forecast +8.59) — that combination of higher-TF oversold + lower-TF turn is the textbook 'buy the base as it starts' spot, and waiting risks giving up the first leg of the +45% daily-forecast move.
- Mortgage-origination cyclicality: fwdPe of 4.32 assumes rate relief; a rates-higher-for-longer shock could invalidate the +45% daily forecast
- Debt/Equity 70.65 is extreme — any credit stress compounds equity downside quickly
- ProfitMargin only 1.97% despite 56.76% oper margin — earnings are highly leveraged to volumes
- Short float 20.94% cuts both ways: squeeze fuel, but also informed shorts if origination volumes disappoint
- Weekly drawdown -49.54% means the stock is in a confirmed downtrend; the trade requires a base to actually hold at $1.85–2.00
| # | Symbol | Verdict | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UWMC | BUY NOW | 8.8 | Full multi-TF alignment, oversold weekly, fwdPe 4.32, fresh analyst upgrades — clearest asymmetric setup. |
| 2 | EPAM | BUY NOW | 8.2 | Weekly fc_long +152% with pos_in_range only 11.08% and −42% DD; analysts still Buy despite PT trims. |
| 3 | CLVT | BUY NOW | 7.7 | $600M divestiture catalyst + weekly fc_long +163%; fwdPe 2.82 but weaker profitability. |
| 4 | CRK | BUY PULLBACK | 7.4 | Deep-value energy at pos_in_range 0-4%, daily fc_short +30%, but weekly fc_long -13.41% is a red flag. |
| 5 | PEGA | BUY NOW | 7.2 | Daily fc_short +45.13% and fc_mid +62.58%, roe 51.74, but 7/8 Seeking Alpha downgrade tempers conviction. |
| 6 | BL | BUY PULLBACK | 6.9 | Daily/weekly fc_mid/long +49-89%, but 1h pos 95% suggests waiting for a dip toward $27. |
| 7 | NCNO | BUY PULLBACK | 6.7 | Daily fc_long +31.71% and rising, but pe 140 and Upstart-sector plummet headline warn on valuation. |
| 8 | SMCI | BUY PULLBACK | 6.4 | Daily fc_long +35.95%, fwdPe 8.94, but weekly forecasts negative (-16.25%) and recom 3.0 lukewarm. |
| 9 | UPWK | BUY PULLBACK | 6.2 | Daily fc_short +57.2% and fc_mid +66.1%, but Seeking Alpha 'disruption' downgrade is a real risk. |
| 10 | OWL | WAIT | 5.9 | Solid mid/long forecasts but UBS private-credit default warning triggered investor exodus — wait for base. |
| 11 | CWH | BUY PULLBACK | 5.7 | Weekly fc_long +190%, deeply oversold, but negative margins and 'sell' commentary make it lottery-ticket. |
| 12 | DXC | WAIT | 5.4 | Weekly fc_long +102%, takeover chatter, but PT cut to $10 and PE 159 offset the setup. |
| 13 | PGY | WAIT | 5.2 | Weekly pos_in_range 100% and fc_long -58.32% — already ran, forecast says exit not enter. |
| 14 | IT | WAIT | 5.0 | Weekly fc_long +148% is compelling but 'governance questions/investigation' headline is a landmine. |
| 15 | FOUR | BUY PULLBACK | 4.8 | Pos 100/87/95/95% — completely extended, wait for a real retrace despite decent forecasts. |
| 16 | LRN | WAIT | 4.5 | Fundamentals fine but 4h/1wk forecasts negative and near_term_bullish only 0; +40% YTD limits reward. |
| 17 | ARRY | BUY PULLBACK | 4.4 | Multi-TF forecasts positive and pos_in_range 0%, but negative roe -22.65 and PT cut to $7.25. |
| 18 | POST | WAIT | 4.2 | Consumer defensive with modest fc_mid +18%, but weekly fc_long only +7% — low-conviction hold. |
| 19 | BKV | WAIT | 4.0 | Great fundamentals (peg 0.35, salesYoY 52%) but forecasts flat/mildly positive and dilution fears in news. |
| 20 | FOXA | WAIT | 3.8 | Decent value story but forecast magnitudes small and peg 1.46 near the screen ceiling. |
| 21 | QDEL | WAIT | 3.5 | Weekly fc_long +98% but 1h/4h forecasts negative, profitMargin -45%, short-interest elevated for a reason. |
| 22 | GPGI | WAIT | 3.2 | SalesYoY -100% and weekly fc_long -44%; missing fundamentals data makes this a pass. |
| 23 | HRB | AVOID | 3.0 | All forecast horizons negative, bullish_prob 0, targetUpside -0.2% — screen-fit only. |
| 24 | ARDT | AVOID | 2.8 | Bullish_prob 0 with all four TFs forecasting flat-to-negative on longer horizons. |
| 25 | MUX | AVOID | 2.6 | Weekly fc_long -51.59%, pos_in_range 0%, negative operMargin — broken tape despite the peg 0.07. |
| 26 | CXT | AVOID | 2.5 | Bullish_prob 0.2, all mid/long forecasts negative, pos_in_range 87% — priced for perfection. |
| 27 | DLO | AVOID | 2.0 | Pos 96-100% on every TF and all forecasts negative — classic exit, not entry. |
| 28 | TOYO | AVOID | 1.8 | Daily 21-bar down -54.81%, recent dilutive $50M offering, weekly fc_short only +7.67%. |
| 29 | TTEC | AVOID | 1.6 | ProfitMargin -9.6%, roe -115.95, debtEq 11.65 — screen pass on paper only, business impaired. |
| 30 | ABX | AVOID | 1.4 | Bullish_prob 0 with expected_return -27%; already +113% 1Y so pain trade is down. |
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